2026 Crisis Simulation Manual: Operation "Thor’s Shadow"

Scenario: Transition from "Joint Sword 2026-C" Exercise to Kinetic Occupation. Objective: Capture the "Heinessen" (Taipei) political center and establish a "SAR Regime" before the "Alliance" (US/Japan) can effectively intervene.

Phase 1: The Normalization of Entropy (T-Minus 30 Days)

Systemic Goal: Lower the signal-to-noise ratio.

• Action: The Empire (PLA) launches its 5th large-scale drill of 2026. The frequency has reached a point where the Taiwanese public and financial markets no longer react to "standard" encirclements.
• The "Fatigue Loop": Taiwan's aging fleet (Cheng Kung-class frigates) is kept at sea for 20+ days to track 052D and 055 destroyers, leading to critical mechanical failure and crew exhaustion.
• The Psychological Signal: Infiltrated social media channels (TikTok/Line groups) amplify the "Cost of Defense" narrative, highlighting the "Protection Money" (US arms sales) while questioning why F-16s are still undelivered.

Phase 2: The "Identity Break" & Digital Blackout (H-Hour)

Systemic Goal: Sever the OODA Loop.

• Cyber Strike: Instead of a massive missile barrage (which triggers immediate US intervention), the Empire initiates a surgical "Identity Break." Using the "Agentic AI" we discussed in the Digital Ragnarök series, the Empire "bricks" Taiwan's military command communications.
• The Fog of Code: Orders from Taipei to the Hualien airbase appear to be "Counter-manded" by legitimate-looking AI-generated deepfake voices of high-ranking generals.
• Sub-sea Severance: The "Research Vessels" loitering near the Bashi Channel "accidentally" sever the primary fiber cables, plunging the island into a digital blackout.

Phase 3: The Lightning Pincer (H+6 Hours)

Systemic Goal: Achieve A2/AD via the "Miyako-Bashi" Blockade.

• The 055 Screen: Eight Type 055 "Imperial Flagships" take position in the Miyako Strait and Bashi Channel. They don't fire on US bases; they simply radiate a massive electronic "Strategy of Denial."
• Carrier Deployment: The Fujian (003) and its battle group move to the Philippine Sea. Its presence solves the Blitzkrieg Equation: it forces the US Seventh Fleet to "Pause for Assessment" rather than "Charge into the Meat Grinder."
• The Special Ops Strike: Under the cover of the "drill," civilian-looking RO-RO (Roll-on/Roll-off) ships docked at Taipei Port reveal rapid-deployment units. They move directly for the Presidential Office and the military's underground command center (Heng Shan).

Phase 4: The Political Fait Accompli (H+48 Hours)

Systemic Goal: Institutionalizing the "SAR Regime."

• The 60% Factor: As the internet flickers back on, it is only to show a "Peace Preservation Committee" composed of local political figures claiming to have reached a "Ceasefire Agreement" to save Taiwan from "pointless destruction."
• The Neutralization of Resistance:
• • 20% Hard Resistance: Isolated in mountain bases, cut off from resupply.
  • 20% "Talk" Resistance: Paralyzed by the sudden shift in the legal reality.
  • 60% Passive Acceptance: The majority, motivated by the desire to "keep the lights on" and maintain their business interests in the "Red Trade System," accepts the SAR status as a Fait Accompli.
• The International Buffer: The Empire announces that the Taiwan Strait remains an "Open International Corridor" for non-military ships. This creates a systemic dilemma for the US and Japan: Do you start World War III to "liberate" a population that has (officially) signed a peace treaty?

Systemic Evaluation: Why this succeeds in 2026

1. Avoidance of "Chosin Reservoir" Attrition: By targeting the political center and social willpower rather than engaging in a massive beach landing, the Empire preserves its own power and minimizes the "World War III" trigger.
2. The Silicon Hostage: By keeping the 2nm fabs in Hsinchu intact but under "New Management," the Empire forces the Alliance (US) to negotiate. The "Silicon Shield" is effectively flipped—it now protects the occupier.
3. The "Strategy of Denial" in Reverse: The US is faced with a "Strategy of Denial" from the Empire. To intervene, the US would have to be the aggressor against a "legitimate" local SAR government.

The Hong Kong Expert's Final Note

This simulation assumes that the Empire has learned the "Putin-Kyiv Lesson." They won't send a disorganized convoy; they will send a Digital-Kinetic Pincer. In 2026, the greatest threat to Iserlohn isn't a missile—it's the Mathematical Realization that the fortress has already been sold from the inside.